Airlines face future oil shock during recovery period

It is difficult to believe that the global economic slowdown commenced one year ago.

Since July 2008, airlines across the world began to cut back on their seat capacity, and parking their aircraft. In it's July 2009 report on trends in the supply of airline flights and seats, the Official Airline Guide OAG reported that airlines are offering 315 million seats which represents a 1% drop when compared to a year ago. Reality is hidden in the fact that this chart is relative and in actuality the availability and demand has stagnated in to an extended L shape leaving airlines, still in the doldrums.

The global economy is still down in North America and Europe which is turn causing a lack of demand in the export driven economies of China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the ASEAN tigers. In India thanks to the large domestic market, there are modest signs of economic recovery with industrial production, core sector production, freight loading all in positive territory.

A key contributor to the collapse of the global economy was the soaring fuel prices in the first half of 2008. Nations across the world and their citizens were wondering when, not if, crude oil would cross the $200 per barrel mark. The chain reaction of crashes - economies to demand to oil prices, made us focus on more immediate priorities and we have conveniently forgotten that the core issue of unbridled demand for oil has still not been addressed. As economies settle down fuel prices are beginning to harden.


David Beckerman, vice president OAG Market Intelligence, said,

“Airline capacity is often cited as a barometer of economic confidence. Carriers adjust their fleet and services in anticipation of market demand for air travel, which is vulnerable to corporate cost management and to disposable income of leisure travellers at times of financial uncertainty."

A stabilising of economic activity is translating to a gradual but steady increase in oil prices, but at the same time job losses and corporate cost cutting continue. This lag is natural as companies and individuals adopt a 'wait and see' approach before commencing expenditure. In the mean while, rising oil prices will impact the bottom lines of airlines while top lines will fail to rise thanks to the lag of passengers returning to the skies.

Grilled sandwich anyone? For airlines the worst is still to come.

Read more »

Shocking drop in global air cargo confirms global economic meltdown

The recently announced results by The International Air Transport Association (IATA), is nothing short of shocking.

International air cargo is down by a whopping 13.5 per cent in November when compared to November 2007, and passenger growth is down by 4.6 per cent.

Graph legend
RPK - Revenue Passenger Kilometres (sales)
ASK - Available Seat Kilometres (capacity)
FTK - Freight Ton Kilometres (sales)
ATK - Available Ton Kilometres (capacity)


Even for year to date comparisons January to November between 2008 and 2007, global air cargo is down 2.2 per cent


Globally air cargo transports about 35 per cent to 40 per cent of global trade, by value. The negative growth in air cargo clearly shows the rapid fall in global trade, and the broadening impact of the deepening economic slowdown.

Even the middle east, the region showing consistent growth, slipped in to negative territory at -1.6 per cent. The largest air freight zone, Asia Pacific, which contributes 44.6 per cent to global air freight, contracted by the largest -16.90 per cent. Capacity cuts of 1 per cent in passenger and 3.7 per cent in cargo, could not keep up with the rapid declines.

India
As per data from the Airports Authority of India, available till October 2008; India year-to-date passenger performance is significantly worse than the rest of Asia Pacific and global performance. Passenger growth is down to -3.4 per cent vs. -0.8 per cent (Asia Pacific) and +2.2 per cent global.

However on the freight front, India has a Y-T-D growth of 4.2 per cent based on actual tonnage, compared to -4.7 per cent in Asia Pacific and -2.2 per cent globally.


Bangalore
For some unexplainable reason, Bangalore's performance is way below the national standard, at -14.8 per cent and -5.3 per cent for monthly passenger and freight performance, and -8 per cent and -7 per cent for year to date passenger and freight performance.

Highlights of the IATA report :

International Passenger Traffic

• The November passenger decline of 4.6% is a considerable worsening from both the 1.3% demand contraction in October and the 2.9% fall in September.
• Asia-Pacific carriers face the most difficult operating environment with a 9.7% decline in November, following a 6.1% contraction in October. The region also had the most aggressive capacity cuts at -5.1%. While Chinese domestic traffic rebounded after the Olympics, travel to and from international markets continues to decline, reflecting the weakness in both global trade and consumer confidence.
• North American carriers saw international traffic decline by 4.8% - the second largest drop among the regions. Until August, the region’s carriers had been shifting capacity to international markets. With the near collapse of the investment banking sector and consequent reductions in business travel, North Atlantic travel slumped. Carriers have started to cut international capacity with a 0.8% drop in November (following 0.4% growth in October)
• European carriers saw international traffic drop by 3.4% as all the region’s major markets (intra-Europe, North Atlantic, and Asia) slumped.
• Smaller emerging markets fared better. African carriers saw traffic decline by 1.6%. This is a considerable improvement from the 12.9% drop in October, resulting from stronger intra-African traffic. Middle Eastern carriers saw traffic increase by 5.6%. This is up from 3.5% growth in October, but represents a step-change from the double-digit expansion that characterized growth prior to the current financial crisis. Latin American carriers saw a slight decline in growth to 3.3% (compared to 4.5% growth in October), buoyed by the region’s positive, albeit slower, economic growth.

International Freight Traffic

• Asia-Pacific carriers (representing 44.6% of global freight) saw freight traffic fall by 16.9% in November - the largest decline of any region. As freight accounts for a larger percentage of revenues for the Asia-Pacific carriers, fourth quarter profits for the region’s carriers will be disproportionately (and negatively) impacted by the downturn in the global air freight market.
• Double-digit freight declines were also experienced by Latin American carriers (-15.7%), North American carriers (-14.4%) and European carriers (-11.0%). Freight traffic for Middle Eastern carriers turned negative (-1.6%), following 1.0% growth in October. African carriers, while being the only region posting freight growth (2.2%), saw a decline from the 3.0% growth posted in October. Plummeting business confidence and the continuing turmoil in financial markets indicates that the worsening trend will be continued in December.

Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO said

“The industry is now shrinking by all measures. The 1.0% capacity cut in international passenger markets in November could not keep pace with the 4.6% fall in passenger demand. We can expect deep losses in the fourth quarter,”

“With no end in sight for the worsening global economy, the 2008 gloom will carry over into the new year. Relief in the oil price has been outstripped by the falls in demand and capacity cuts are not keeping pace. The industry is back in intensive care. Improving efficiency everywhere will be theme for 2009,”

While the end to the global economic slowdown is still much further away than expected, the freight performance in India, shows us, the Indian economy is still performing well. We have to defeat the FUD Factor (Fear Uncertainty Doubt) that is in our minds.

Read more »

Bangalore airport to go slow on expansion, awaits UDF clearance

Madhumathi D.S. of the Hindu Business Line reports that the 5 month young Bengaluru International Airport, which was expected to have a dream take-off on the back of phenomenal traffic growth during 2005-08, now seems to be going slow on its expansion plan in the face of a traffic decline.

“There has been a dramatic fall in monthly traffic for all airports in India since June 2008. We are currently conducting a study on the current trend and based on the results, which will be out in two-three months, we will take a decision on our next expansion plan,” the operator, BIAL, said in response to queries from Business Line.

Until a couple of months ago, BIAL CEO, Mr Albert Brunner, was hoping to take up a mezzanine expansion now and a larger Rs 3,500-crore phase 2 in early 2009 with a second terminal, pending the board’s clearance.

Bangalore's traffic numbers, reflect the overall slowdown across the country. BIAL said, “The overall annual growth of passenger volume [at Bengaluru International Airport] has dropped to 3 per cent since June 2008” compared to an anticipated 8 per cent growth rate.

The Southern sector has been especially dented. “There has been a drop of approximately 15 per cent in the flights operating in the Southern sector (Kochi, Coimbatore, Hyderabad, Chennai) from Bangalore since May 2008. The Mumbai, Kochi, Coimbatore, Delhi, Goa, Hyderabad, Chennai and Pune routes have collectively seen a 12 per cent reduction in the number of flights,” as per BIAL sources.

The dip could also not have come at a worse time than now for BIAL, which is awaiting the Civil Aviation Ministry’s clearance to start collecting a user fee (UDF) from domestic fliers leaving the city. The UDF is one of the main revenue sources for its ambitious expansion plan.

BIAL started collecting a user fee of Rs 1,070 each from its outbound international passengers from the first day of its operations.

The May, June, July period is lean all over India, but traffic has continued declining instead of picking-up in late August and September as it does every year. Clearly the "FUD Factor" (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) of the global economic melt-down is having its effect on the psyche of India Inc.

Bangalore’s air traffic, the third highest in the country, was until a few months ago the envy of some other larger cities. BIA opened in May 24, taking over 10.1 million annual passenger traffic from the HAL airport. In fact, the traffic growth was so large and unforeseen – from 4 million in 2005 to over 10.1 million in FY 2007 – that BIAL had to insert two unscheduled expansions into first phase of the project in 2006-07, a move that pushed the project cost from the original Rs 1,400 crore to Rs 2,500 crore.

That happily poised graph has changed its course downwards. Even as BIA completed 100 days in late August, the writing was on the wall. Peak hour traffic did not grow to match the capacity, though BIA handled 2.42 million passengers, on the wing of 30 per cent rise in international airlines and air freight carriers into the city.

From 170 flights per day and 340 air traffic movements (ATMs) when it launched, BIA will now end the Summer ‘08 season with 162 flights (324 ATMs) per day. Winter ‘08 flights would see a small 1.5 per cent gain with 165 flights (or 330 ATMs). According to the operator, “Although the domestic air traffic reflects a [fall] of 1.5 per cent, the overall positive growth is due to the increased international flight operations from Bangalore.”

This is in spite of adding six new international carriers since it began services - Dragon Air, Tiger Airways, Oman Air, Air Mauritius and most recently Kingfisher Airlines and Jet Airways. International flights, BIA said, have increased over 230 per cent year on year for the Winter season.

BIAL said the domestic UDF, once cleared, will be part of the airline ticket cost; the airlines will collect it while issuing tickets, as directed by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation. BIAL plans to set up counters to collect the fee by cash or credit card from those who have booked their tickets in advance but will be flying from the levy date.

UDF has become a double-edged sword for BIAL. They are facing the "Devil's Alternative". Imposition of UDF will have its impact on an already weak aviation scenario, and not imposing UDF, will have disastrous consequences on the finances of BIAL. I do not envy Mr. Brunner's seat at this moment, he has some very delicate balancing to do, and hard choices to make.

All I can offer is my support during these tough times.

Read more »