Dubai International’s passenger traffic up 13.1 per cent in September

By BA Staff

Courtesy of Wikipedia

Passenger traffic at Dubai International, the world’s second busiest airport for international passengers, rose 13.1 per cent in September, according to the latest traffic statistics issued yesterday by operator Dubai Airports.

Passenger traffic in September totaled 5,407,326, an increase of 13.1 per cent compared to 4,780,394 during the corresponding month in 2012. Year to date traffic is up 16 per cent to 49,379,165 compared to 42,565,340 recorded during the first nine months of 2012. Aircraft movements totaled 30,746 during September, an increase of 10.2 per cent from the 27,909 recorded during the same period last year. Passengers per aircraft movement in September came in at 193.

All regions recorded positive growth in September with the exception of South America (-6.9 per cent).  Among the strongest markets in terms of percentage* passenger growth were Eastern Europe (+65.1 per cent), driven by flydubai expansion to multiple destinations in the region and Emirates’ new service to Warsaw. Passenger traffic to and from Australasia rose 38.6 per cent as a result of Emirates' expansion and Qantas’ new operation connecting Australia and London through Dubai. On a country level, Australia (+41.7 per cent), France (+23.7 per cent), Saudi Arabia (+22.4 per cent), Thailand (+21.8 per cent) and the UK (+21.7 per cent) saw the largest increases.

In terms of overall passenger numbers, Western Europe traffic took over as the top market thanks to robust growth (+14.8 per cent) during the month. AGCC came in second thanks to 15 per cent year-on-year passenger traffic growth. The Indian subcontinent, which took third spot, continued to show positive growth (+9.8 per cent) due to the expansion of several Indian carriers including Indigo, Spice Jet and Air India Express.

Air freight volumes rose 1.8 per cent in September with volumes of 196,823 tonnes compared to 193,261 recorded during the same period last year. Year-to-date cargo traffic totalled 1,785,539 tonnes, up 6.6 per cent from the 1,674,997 tonnes shipped during the same period last year.

Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports said:

“Passenger and cargo traffic growth continue unabated and Dubai International is on track to eclipse our projections for 65.4 million passengers and 2.7 million tonnes of cargo. With the opening of our new passenger terminal at Al Maktoum International at Dubai World Central, and the ongoing expansion at Dubai International, Dubai’s aviation infrastructure continues to make it an attractive destination for tourism, trade and commerce.”

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Air India constitutes over 80% of dues to Airports Authority of India

by Devesh Agarwal

Air India is well known for receiving thousands of crores of tax-payer rupees in bailouts, however, the unfettered largesse to the beleaguered national carrier does not end there. The airline is the constant recipient of indirect dole in the form of huge overdues to state-run service providers like the Airports Authority of India which runs most of the airports in India, and the state-owned oil marketing companies like Indian Oil which sell aviation fuel.

While these entities are quick to put private carriers on a "cash and carry" basis if they default, Air India is given a free run of their resources.

Airlines' dues to AAI as of 31-Mar-2013

Last week, Minister of state in the ministry of civil aviation, Mr. K.C. Venugopal informed the Lok Sabha (the lower house of the Indian parliament) on the dues of airlines to the Airports Authority of India. The statement says

AAI takes adequate efforts to recover the dues by regular monitoring. Action is also taken as per the approved credit policy of AAI. Defaulting companies have to pay interest as per AAI Credit Policy on delayed payments. In cases where delay persists, besides encashing the Security Deposit, the defaulting airlines are put on 'Cash and Carry Basis'. Interest @ 12% per annum is charged in respect of traffic dues. Interest on non-traffic dues is charged as per terms and conditions of the agreement which could be either 18% or 12%.

With about 19% of domestic market share, Air India's dues of Rs. 1,539.75 crores, constitutes over 80% of the total dues, while leader IndiGo, whose market share is almost 30%, owes just Rs. 2.89 crore or 0.15% of the authority's total dues.

In March, Minister of state for petroleum and natural gas Ms. Panabaaka Lakshmi informed the Lok Sabha, Air India owes state-owned oil companies Rs. 4,324 crore in outstanding fuel bills as on February 28, 2013. This is more than three times all the other domestic carriers combined.

It will be interesting to see the details on the Interest being charged to Air India, and why they are not being put on a cash and carry system.

Share your thoughts via a comment.

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New Boeing 737-800s of SpiceJet and Jet Airways delivered

by Devesh Agarwal

US airplane manufacturer Boeing has delivered to two Indian airlines, SpiceJet and Jet Airways, their newest 737-800NG aircraft.

Last Thursday, VT-SZH of SpiceJet, L/N 4573 C/N 41261 B737-86N departed Boeing Field International airport for India via Gander, Newfoundland, Canada. The aircraft has already landed in New Delhi and completing its customs and aviation paperwork formalities to enter service shortly. This aircraft is leased to SpiceJet by GECAS.

Last Friday VT-JFL of Jet Airways, L/N 4579 C/N 39061 B737-8AL, departed Boeing Field International for India via Toronto, Canada. The aircraft is en-route, currently in Shannon, Ireland. Track the flight here. This aircraft is leased to Jet Airways from Bank of China Aviation (BOC Aviation).

Boeing Customer Codes

A small trivia for your enjoyment.

The full aircraft model shows the original customer as per the records of Boeing. The last two digits are the two digit Boeing customer code and the first four digits are the model and variant.

Hence a Boeing 737-800 will be shown at B737-8xx. A Boeing 737-900ER would be shown as B737-9xxER. This will never change in the history of the aircraft.

6N is customer code for GECAS and AL is for BOC Aviation. SpiceJet's Boeing customer code is GJ and Jet Airway's is 5R. If these aircraft were bought by either airline, irrespective of a subsequent sale and lease-back agreement, the aircraft models would have been B737-8GJ and B737-85R respectively.

Air India's customer code is 37, Air India Express is HG, and the Indian Air Force is HI. Sorry, but the code for the Indian Navy is not known at present. Will try and find out.

Above photos are representative of the aircraft and airline and are copyrighted. They may not be used without permission.

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Air India Express to shift to new Hamad airport in Doha Qatar

Air India Express will shift all its operations to the new Hamad International Airport (HIA) previously called New Doha International Airport (NDIA) in Qatar, on April 1, 2013. Nine other airlines are also being made to shift to the new airport.

Air Arabia, Biman Bangladesh Airlines, flydubai, Iran Air, Nepal Airlines, Pakistan International Airlines, RAK Airways, Syrian Air, and Yemen Airways. These airlines collectively operate about 32 passenger flights daily or about 222 flights per week.

The HIA is under-going a soft-opening. These ten airlines will help iron out the operational issues that affect any new airport. National carrier Qatar Airways and all other major airlines will continue to remain at the old Doha airport till the end of the year.

These ten airlines will operate from concourse B at HIA which will be fully operational on 1st April 2013. Passengers will enter the passenger terminal complex from the east side entrance and go directly to the check-in counters. After check-in, immigration and security, passengers will be directed to concourse B.

Along with the concourse B opening on 1st April 2013, the eastern runway, which is the longest of the two runways at HIA, and the crescent-shaped air traffic control tower, will also be in operation.

Parking will be available at the eastern side of the short term car park in front of the passenger terminal complex. From the car park, passengers will be able to enter the passenger terminal complex through the eastern link bridge connected to parking facility.

There will be taxis available to and from HIA as well as a limousine service from April 1. The taxi pick-up point is located on the arrivals floor at the left side when exiting the terminal and the limousine service is located on the arrivals floor at the right side when exiting the terminal. Across the road from arrivals there will be a pick-up point for private cars.

For transport between airports, arriving and departing passengers will be able to use the shuttle bus service which will be operating from HIA to Doha International Airport Departures terminal (DIA) and DIA to HIA as of the 1st April 2013.

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IndiGo concentrates Dubai presence with second Mumbai and first Thiruvananthapuram service

by Devesh Agarwal

Gurgaon based IndiGo will commence a daily service between Kerala's capital Thiruvananthapuram (Trivandrum) and Dubai from March 1, 2013.

6E 038 will depart Thiruvananthapuram 18:20 arrive Dubai 21:15
6E 037 will depart Dubai 11:25 arrive Thiruvananthapuram 17:15

On the same day the carrier will commence its second daily flight between Mumbai and Dubai.

6E 063 will depart Mumbai 08:35 arrive Dubai 10:25
6E 064 will depart Dubai 11:25 arrive Mumbai 15:55

The launch of these two flights will coincide with the launch of IndiGo's flights between Chennai and Singapore.

6E 053 will depart Chennai 22:00 arrive Singapore 04:50+1 (the next morning)
6E 054 will depart Singapore 05:50 arrive Chennai 07:15

These three launches come after the airline will completely withdraw from Singapore by terminating its current New Delhi Singapore and Mumbai Singapore flights, and scale back by withdrawal of its Mumbai Bangkok service.

With the launch of the two Dubai services, IndiGo will operate a total of 56 weekly flights between India and Dubai.

With the increased focus on Dubai, by Indian airlines like Jet Airways which operates 42 flights, SpiceJet, which operates 49, not counting the flights by the traditional operators like Air India with 60 flights, Air India Express with 63, and the 189 wide-body weekly services operated by behemoth Emirates, one has to serious consider the serious glut of capacity to this tiny Emirate.

Share your thoughts via a comment.

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Opinion: The Etihad-Jet Airways-Kingfisher Airlines love triangle. Who should Etihad choose?

by Devesh Agarwal

Two days ago, two Times of India group newspapers, The Bangalore Mirror and The Economic Times reported UAE national carrier Etihad buying a 48% in financially disabled and grounded Indian carrier Kingfisher Airlines. The Bangalore Mirror may be a tabloid, but The Economic Times is no slouch when it comes to financial matters.

This went against the news of on-going and advanced discussions between Etihad and India's Jet Airways for a possible stake sale by the latter, discussions on which Vinay Bhaskara has posted an analysis.

Curiously, on Wednesday, in another report The Economic Times surreptitiously distanced itself from its own Tuesday report saying

There were reports on Tuesday in certain section of the media that Etihad would pay Rs 3,000 crore for a 48% stake in Kingfisher.

and the question on everyone's minds - what is going on with this love triangle of sorts? Etihad, the groom, is being wooed by two brides, both of whom need Etihad's money; one for expansion, one for revival. Is it a done deal between Kingfisher and Etihad or not? What about Jet and Etihad? Who will Etihad choose? Who should Etihad chose? When Jet and Etihad have been in talks for a while, and there are signs of significant progress, why is Etihad talking to Kingfisher about a stake sale?

Before we go further, in the interests of full disclosure, I own shares, albeit a very small number, in all three publicly listed airlines in India - Jet Airways, Kingfisher Airlines, and SpiceJet.

Firstpost hints at a possible reason why Kingfisher has suddenly popped up in middle of the Etihad Jet courtship. The aggressive demands and arrogant approach by Jet Airways, led by its Chairman Mr. Naresh Goyal, is well known in aviation circles. Despite being publicly ambivalent about foreign direct investment in civil aviation (some say even opposing), Mr. Goyal has been trying his hand out, trying to drum up investors and partners. Nothing wrong there. As a shareholder of Jet, I would want the company's leadership trying to get the best deal. However, it is possible that Jet started discussions and partnerships with one too many a partner, without sealing and fructifying previous deals, and this has soured the situation in more than one boardroom, from the middle east to Europe.

Reports also suggest Jet has been demanding a huge 65% premium, from its current share price, meaning Etihad will have to fork out almost $300 million for a measly 24% stake in Jet, and still get no management control. Furthermore, it appears that Jet has demanded Etihad pay over 50% of the planned investment upfront. These demands, and a possible arrogance of "we are the only airline worth dealing with in India", have queered the pitch, somewhat, prompting Etihad to consider Kingfisher.

So, who should Etihad choose? Jet Airways or Kingfisher Airlines? We welcome your comments and thoughts.

In my humble opinion Etihad should choose Kingfisher.

Etihad is a relative new comer to the airline world, having started just nine years ago, on November 12, 2003, but it is one of the fastest growing airline in the entire history of commercial aviation, under the leadership of James Hogan.

For strategic growth, Etihad has taken stakes in airlines in key markets around the world. 29.21% stake in Air Berlin, a member of oneworld, 40% in Air Seychelles, 2.987% in Irish carrier, Aer Lingus, and 10% in Virgin Australia.

Like the other two of the famous MEB3 (middle east big 3) carriers, Emirates airline of Dubai, and Qatar Airways of Doha, Etihad heavily depends on sixth freedom traffic, connecting passengers across the world, in and out of its Abu Dhabi hub, but due to its late entry, Etihad though does not enjoy the sheer seat volumes in the air services bilateral agreements, Abu Dhabi has signed with various countries, India especially, and in South Asia generally.

At 54,200 seats in over 189 wide body flights a week, Emirates is sarcastically considered the 'unofficial flag carrier of India'. India contributes almost 11% of Emirates' 33+ million annual passengers. Qatar Airways at 101 flights is not too far behind. Now Emirates is trying to renegotiate its India capacity to cross 89,000 weekly seats. The situation is similar in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Etihad needs India for its growth story. Abu Dhabi is limited to about 25,000 seats a week, and Etihad has maxed it out.

Unlike Dubai, which is well served by Indian carriers, IndiGo alone offers 72 weekly flights with 12,960 seats, SpiceJet is at 48 flights and 9,072 seats, Air India, Air India Express, and Jet Airways too having a large number of flights, Abu Dhabi does not see much service by Indian carriers.

With Kingfisher, Etihad will get a 49% stake, and unquestioned management control. It can easily leverage Kingfisher to feed Indian and South Asian passengers to its Abu Dhabi hub, and in a fell swoop, can double its India capacity. From a network perspective also, Etihad today, needing to broad-base its India network, still flies A320 narrow bodies to most of its Indian destinations, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, and Hyderabad. Only Delhi and Mumbai are served by wide-body aircraft. Etihad can deploy Kingfisher's A320s which are well equipped with in-flight amenities on these routes, while increasing wide-body capacity at strategic Indian destinations to better compete with both Emirates and Qatar.

Unlike Jet, Kingfisher also does not have an international network, especially to London, a prized destination for all the MEB3 carriers.

With Jet, Etihad gets a running airline, but only a non-controlling stake, and a stake sale will involve untangling the knotty issues of Naresh Goyal Jet Airways' ownership, which is routed through Tailwinds in the tax haven of the Channel Islands, and which is currently in violation of Indian securities laws.

By choosing Kingfisher, Etihad will have to essentially revive the airline, but it has significant assets, routes and slots. With total control, Etihad can remould Kingfisher to closer suit its strategic goals. Keeping in mind its stake in airberlin, control of Kingfisher would also allow Etihad an additional entry in to the oneworld alliance, something that Qatar Airways may not like too much.

On the financial front, while Etihad will get a controlling stake for not much money, it will have to deal with the significant accumulated losses and over Rs. 7,000 Cr. debt, of Kingfisher, owed to banks. This debt though, can be dealt with. Dr. Mallya will use some of the gains from the sale of United Spirits to Diageo to pay down that part of the debt for which he has given personal guarantees. On the whole, lenders will be relieved to see Kingfisher revive, which will enable them to slowly recover their money. Better to get a 50% haircut, than being shaved bald.

To pull this recast of Kingfisher Airlines off, Etihad will need political clout, and that is where Dr. Vijay Mallya scores over Naresh Goyal. While there is no doubt Goyal is THE formidable political force in the Indian airline industry, Mallya has the clout of the liquor industry, the grease pipe of Indian politics. National elections are coming in 2014, and the Indian politicians know they need to dance with the person who brung yah.

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Coincidence in the registration series of Jet Airways' 737s VT-JFx and IndiGo's A320s VT-IFx

This is an interesting snippet and for the interest of plane spotters.

At present, the two leading airlines in India are Jet Airways and IndiGo; and they also happen to be aggressively adding aircraft to their fleet. By sheer coincidence, the registration sequences for the new aircraft for both these airlines happen to be very similar. Jet's new Boeing 737s are in the VT-JFx sequence, and IndiGo is in the VT-IFx sequence. VT-JFA (see picture here) joined the Jet fleet a couple of weeks ago, and VT-JFB just couple of days ago. IndiGo will expect its A320 VT-IFA (see picture here) within this month.

The registration number of aircraft is much like a car number plate, except in the case of aircraft it is on a national basis. All aircraft in India have their registration number commence with VT, followed by three alphabets.

Airlines, with the exception of Air India and the erstwhile Indian Airlines, try to use the next three alphabets as a branding of the airline's number or abbreviation.

VT-VJM on take off

So Jet Airways has VT-JAx, VT-JBx, VT-JCx (ATR-72s), VT-JEx (Boeing 777s), VT-JNx, and VT-JWx (Airbus A330s), and now VT-JFx. JetLite has VT-JLx and also VT-SJ (from the acquired Air Sahara).

Kingfisher has VT-KAx (ATR-72s), VT-KFx, VT-ADx, VT-DKx and VT-DNx (from the acquired Air Deccan), and their A330 fleet was VT-VJx (Dr. Vee Jay mallya perhaps). Dr. Mallya's private A319 Corporate Jet is registered VT-VJM and his Boeing 727 is registered in the USA as N727VJ (all US registrations begin with N). Incidentally, VT-VJM used to always operate as Kingfisher flight 11.

SpiceJet has VT-SJx, VT-SGx (the IATA airline code for SpiceJet is SG), and VT-SUx (Q400s).

IndiGo began with VT-INx, then VT-IGx, then VT-IEx (IndiGo's IATA code is 6E) and now VT-IFx. I wonder what passengers will make of VT-IFE, considering IndiGo's A320s do not have an In-Flight Entertainment (IFE) system, or VT-IFK or VT-IFU?

Air India's sequences appear to be less about the airline and more about individuals. For example the current A321s in the fleet are VT-PPx (Praful Patel perhaps?). However, the Air India Express subsidiary has its 737-800s registered VT-AXx which have some wonderful tail art. Read our stories explaining the tail art of each aircraft.

Please share your interesting anecdotes or thoughts via the comments section below.

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Opinion: DGCA fiasco highlights need to resolve conflicts of interests in civil aviation ministry

The abrupt removal of India's chief civil aviation regulator, the Director General of Civil Aviation, Mr. E.K. Bharat Bhushan, earlier this month, once again brings forth the cross-workings within the ministry of civil aviation, caused by contradictory roles, many of which are driven by political agendas, and the urgent need to re-structure this mammoth ministry to correct the malaise.

Indian civil aviation minister Ajit Singh. PIB Photo.

Mr. Bharat Bhushan, an Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer of the 1979 batch from Kerala, who took over the role of DGCA from Mr. Syed Nasim Ahmad Zaidi in December 2010. He enjoys the highest levels of respect for his integrity, ethics and generally apolitical decision making.

The reasons behind his sudden dismissal have fuelled speculation on the reasons. Within aviation industry circles, there is a strong sense of certainty that Bharat Bhushan was done in, partially due to a political turf war between the ministry and the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), and in large part due to his strong ethical stand on a variety of issues plaguing the industry.

During his tenure Bharat Bhushan brought in stringent measures to prevent airlines and the DGCA itself, from compromising on safety. He prosecuted a variety of flying schools and government officials in the fake pilots scam, and took on two holy cows, Air India and Kingfisher Airlines. He has repeated told both the financially plagued carriers to shape up and pay employees overdue salaries saying that safety could be adversely affected by a demotivated staff.

Post his departure, news reports have appeared showing his purported note to his successor Prashant Sukul that he had prepared for taking action against cash-strapped Kingfisher Airlines on safety grounds. The cat has been set amongst the pigeons with the ministry saying it cannot find the note and will ask Bhushan for the note.

This wrangling is nothing new. The civil aviation is a behemoth with many departments and entities under it, most of which, have contradictory roles and by the very nature of their function, work at cross purposes to each other. Even in Utopian conditions it is impossible make all these roles co-exist within one ministry and still perform true to their charter, and at optimal levels, and this is the Government of India, one not highly rated on governance.

The ministry itself is a policy maker, but also an airport operator through Airports Authority of India (AAI), and airline operator through Air India (AI). Within AAI, there are airport operations and a monopoly air traffic control, navigation, and communications system which is used for further cross-subsidy.

Global competitiveness have forced aviation operations to operate on extremely high levels of efficiency, not the forte of any government. This naturally demands some concessions for government run operations, and the Indian airline industry is already sick thanks to skewed policies designed to protect AAI and AI.

In its natural role, the ministry is a promoter of air travel which requires easing of regulation, but via the DGCA it is also the regulator and in most cases, also the investigator. You will observe that I have deliberately left out the role of enforcer or prosecutor. The most basic rules of administration demand a separation of policy formulation, operation, regulation, audit, investigation, and enforcement. In all publicly listed companies there is always a separate audit committee within the Board of Directors.

Yet ministry officials are routinely shifted across roles. Let us take the current acting DGCA Mr. Sukul. He is a Joint Secretary in the ministry. In addition to the regulator, auditor, enforcer role at DGCA, Mr. Sukul is also a member of the board of Air India, an airline, the DGCA has to regulate, audit, and enforce the rules on. Similarly, the joint DGCA Mr. Anil Srivastava, is also the Chairman and Managing Director of state owned helicopter operator, Pawan Hans Helicopters. These are conflicts of interest at the most basic level. We have to be delusional not to expect compromises being forced on these and other officials within the ministry.

On these obvious conflicts of interest, the civil aviation ministry seems to be a law unto itself. It has ignored calls from no less a body, than the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet, which is the government's apex body for high level bureaucratic appointments, and headed by the Prime Minister, which had asked the ministry to relieve Anil Srivastava from his leadership of Pawan Hans to resolve the blatant conflict of interest.

A lot of this cross working was exposed in the report on the crash of Air India Express Boeing 737-800 VT-AXV at Mangalore Bajpe airport in 2010.

Despite significant short-comings none of the ministry controlled entities were faulted. AAI, the airport operator, which did not construct frangible buildings at the runway, as required at every major airport in India, nor the DCGA, which conducts the inspections, and ensures these facilities before approval, were both let off with the gentlest of slaps on the wrist, for not performing their duties.

The question before us, is what caused these officers to under-perform? Which of these four C's is most plausible? (in)competence? callousness? corruption? conflict (of interest)?

It is imperative that Indian aviation be protected. Various entities within the ministry need to be made truly independent and taken out of its control.

The recommendation, in the crash report, for an independent investigative board, remains a distant dream. The board may come one day, but we can be certain, that a truly independent board, not reporting within, controlled by, and therefore subservient to the civil aviation ministry, and its political shenanigans, will never be implemented.

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Topic of the Week - Air India Express as a True LCC

Open publication - Free publishing

Above you can find my article in Orient Aviation India magazine (pages 9-10: reading link is http://issuu.com/orientaviation/docs/oamagindia_may12/3) on Air India Express' hypothetical shift towards an LCC business model. Readers, what are your thoughts on Air India Express' plan? Will you stop flying Air India Express because of these service cuts? Can this model be modified to fit the domestic Indian market? Please post a comment with your thoughts below. P.S. I will finally be resuming posting after a month's leave

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"How can you save money, except by getting the 787?" Interview with Dr. Dinesh Keskar, President, Boeing India

On the sidelines of the India Aviation 2012 show at Hyderabad, Devesh Agarwal had an exclusive one-on-meeting interview with Dr. Dinesh Keskar, President, Boeing International Corporation India Pvt. Ltd., and Senior Vice President of Sales, Asia-Pacific and India, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Dr. Keskar also chairs the Committee on Aviation at the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) which organises this show.

The interview was held on-board the 787-8 Dreamliner, N1015B, in Air India configuration, line number 35, specially brought in for the show. (See cabin photos and video walk through here.)

Dr. Dinesh Keskar

Bangalore Aviation covered a wide variety of questions with Dr. Keskar, from the 787 to 737 MAX to 747-8i to 777-X, and not just in his official capacity at Boeing, but also as a seasoned and well informed observer of the Indian commercial aviation industry. Dr. Keskar answered all the questions posed to him, and gave us a frank opinion, on what he sees happening in the ailing Indian airline industry.

Q: Please give us an update of what’s going on at Boeing, from an India, Asia-Pac, to a global perspective?

A: The bottom line is, the world is a big market with 33,504 sales as a long term forecast. Within that, I think Asia-Pacific has the largest potential. If we come from that perspective, Asia is the booming thing right now, Europe is still struggling, the US is kind of flat, and then you have India at the bottom, which is a good market, but as I said yesterday [at the public Boeing press briefing], the growth is there, still double digits, but it is a profit-less growth, and that is our big problem right now.

Q: You have brought the Air India version of the 787 to India. How has been the response to the aircraft? From the public? from [launch Indian customer] Air India? from Government officials?

A: Tremendous… Everybody who has walked in is absolutely impressed with the airplane. Those people who have seen the airplane from the inside, who have seen the features, who have looked at the full flat business class seats, who have played with the electronic windows; who have looked at the economy seats and are absolutely ecstatic. They cannot wait to have this airplane in India so they can start making money with it.

You can see it for yourself, bigger bins, larger windows, better humidity, we talked about what the passengers can see themselves. Then there is also what they can feel, which is the air filtration system, the dust elimination system, the cabin altitude [787 cabin pressure is maintained at 6,000ft MSL vs. 8,000ft of other aircraft], and I mean you can go on and on. These are not present in any other airplane, and these are all important factors.

Q: Have you been successful in your efforts to persuade the government that the Dreamliner is the aircraft Air India needs to succeed in its efforts to turn around? There has been a lot of talk about the Indian government reducing the order due to financial constraints? Can you please comment on how confident you are in retaining the original order of 27 787-8 Dreamliners? [Editor's note: About a month after this interview, the Government of India, in its financial bail-out package of Air India, confirmed the airline will take delivery of all ordered 27 aircraft.]

A: I cannot comment on the Government of India’s mindset or on the on-going negotiations. It is the government's prerogative on what to do; but I will say that this is the best airplane we have. You can see the data. 850+ planes sold, five aircraft already delivered, 59 customers, one has started taking delivery.

Which other airplane gives the fuel efficiency that this aircraft does? 30% lower maintenance costs, 10% lower operating costs. There is no other airplane like this. It is an amazing airplane. How can you save money, except by getting an airplane like this?

Q: How are the five delivered Dreamliners performing at [launch customer] ANA (All Nippon Airways)? Are there any issues?

A: You should talk to ANA too, but they are clearly very pleased with the plane, and they have made a statement to this effect. Over 100,000 passengers have flown on the different sectors that they fly, and it has over 98% dispatch reliability, which is unthinkable for an airplane which is going into service for the first time in the world.

Q: What are some of the other critical indicators, there are concerns some of the initial airplanes were overweight?

A: That’s true, but the plane is making all the missions. One has to see what are you really getting? On the initial airplanes , instead of 20% improvement in fuel efficiency, you are getting 18%. Airlines kill for 1% and this is straight 18%. We are doing programs and we are continuing to improve the program in such a manner that we will be able to make up for these initial deficiencies, reduce the weight, and we will try to improve the aircraft’s engine and engine integration, so that we will get back to the efficiency that we initially advertised.

Computer generated image Lion Air Boeing 737-9 MAX

Q: Switching tracks now. You led the team that closed the largest aircraft order in history, very recently, with Indonesian LCC Lion Air for the 737-9 MAX. What does this order mean for Boeing in general, and for the MAX program in particular?

A: So obviously, it is the third customer after American and Southwest. These are big orders. People were always worried who Lion Air is, but now they’ve taken delivery of their 60th 737-900ER just about 10 days ago, and they are making a lot of money with these aircraft.

Q: Lion Air was the launch customer of the 737-900ER. Will they be the launch customer of the 737 MAX 9 as well?

A: Yes.

Q: What has this done for the MAX program?

A: First of all, it is a clear indication that people believe in this aircraft, when you have airline’s putting belief in this aircraft [by ordering it] in these quantities of numbers. And again, if you look at it, Indonesia is a perfect market, where there are 17,000 islands, across 7 time zones, bigger than the US. You fly 6 hours and you are still in the country. So they can generate lot of RPKs [Revenue Passenger Kilometres - a measure of airline performance], and that is why they need such airplanes. The ASEAN [Association of South East Asian Nations] is being opened up. When there will be open skies in ASEAN, then there is no limit to where they [Lion Air] can go; and that’s where, if Lion Air can run an efficient airline, a profitable airline, which he does in this environment with the fuel price where it is, they’re going to be the leader in the ASEAN low cost segment.

Q: Please elaborate on Boeing's plans for the 737 MAX in India?

A: Jet Airways [group which includes JetLite, now re-named to JetKonnect] flies a majority fleet of 737s which are NGs [737-700, -800, -900/ER], and then SpiceJet is all NG, and Air India Express is now at 23 737-800s. When you are looking for replacement for these airplanes, clearly you are going to get the same thing. We are showing customers what this [the MAX] is all about, and we are showing them how we’re not changing today’s 737. We’re not changing the body, we’re not changing the interior, we’re just changing the engine. So it is whatever is there today, it’s just becoming 15% more fuel efficient. So it’s going to be an amazing thing for airlines. No cockpit changes, nothing.

Q: Currently, Boeing has 451 orders for the MAX, but you have more than 1,000 commitments (which includes these 451 orders). Lion Air has demonstrated their confidence in the form of an order. Why are other customers hesitating to convert their commitments into firm orders?

A: I won’t say it's hesitating. It takes time to define everything, and people have different things going right now. And they’ve stepped up to say that they want this airplane because, as you can appreciate Devesh, the more they wait, they might not get the early positions. Lion Air has locked up the early positions in 2017, so has Southwest, and clearly there’s an advantage to that. But they have to weigh that with respect to their other things going in their life as an airline. But I don’t put too much stock into that difference (between orders and commitments). Some people might think, it’s 2012 and the aircraft is 5 years away, what’s the big rush?

Q: We understand your competitor is facing some issues with CFM. How confident is Boeing in the LEAP-X engine, especially since its a single source engine for the MAX?

A: We feel pretty good. I have not heard anything other than that, and we have time to fix it. Clearly we have given them [CFM] the numbers. We have told them what missions this airplane has to do. It can only happen if they deliver. After all what is the big change on the MAX? its only the engine, and we if we don't have that, we are left with an NG.

Q: What future does Boeing see for the 787 in India, beyond the 27 and ten orders with Air India and Jet?

A: So you are asking who else, in India, do you think can fly the 787 internationally? The rest of our customers are all regional airlines. The two airlines that are capable of flying it [the 787] internationally have already purchased it. Other airlines are still flying within a zone, that is very small and regional. The 787 is not the airplane to go to Dubai and back.

Once we have those airlines interested, we’ll be talking. Even SpiceJet’s people went through this airplane today. So, it’s not like we’re not talking to them, but you have to be realistic also. When will they have the flight plan for using the 787? When will they be able to fly the airplane, etc.? We are working with the various airlines. In any case, even if they came today, right now I could not give them the airplane till 6~7 years down the line, unless they lease it. So it works out all well.

Q: What future do you see for the 777, and 777-X when it does develop, and your 747-8i?

A: The 747-8i, I feel, the potential may only be with Air India, if at all. The reason for that is, you just look at Bombay London, or the India London routes for that matter. Six to seven years ago, we only had 25 to 30 frequencies a week. Today we have 120, just on India London. With that kind of number, you clearly can see that you can’t take a big 747 and fly it because there are five other airlines that are flying a flight within the same hour.

So you got to have an airplane that is right-sized that is more efficient, and that’s what 777 and 787 are all about. We think that the 777 has a tremendous future. As we build variants like the 777X going forward they too will have a solid future. Once you have the base, and we have the base, as an example look at the cockpit; people that fly the 777 can fly the 787 with just five days of training. The 777X is not going to make a radical change either. Whereas, to go to an Airbus requires a long training period and a complete change in philosophy.

We’re going to continue to work with all our airline customers and keep them informed; in fact I am doing that as we speak right now, to airlines about what's coming in the future, and also taking their inputs so the airplane is what they want and like, as opposed to what we tell them it will be.

Q: What kind of demand do you see for new build freighters within the India market?

Not much, though, there is a market for used conversion freighters. That is already happening with Blue Dart, and we only have one dedicated freight airline, in India, today, and that too is regional and small. The reason for that, is that we’ve created a 777 that carries 15 tons of cargo in its belly, that’s half of the 737 freighter’s capacity. 787 is another good example, it’s got 14 tons of belly cargo capability. With that kind of capability, we are creating airplanes which already have a mini-freighter built in the belly, allowing airlines to leverage their passenger operations better.

Q: The Indian economy is growing fast, the passenger market at double digits. It has one of the highest growth rates in the world at 15-20%, yet Indian carriers are losing money, hands over fist. Why?

A: Simply put, because the airlines are pricing lower to artifically stimulate demand. If they continue this behaviour, it is not an industry that can be sustained.

Q: This question is for you, not as a Boeing person, but rather as an informed observer of global aviation. Many Indian airlines are leasing out their 300 plus seat aircraft out to foreign carriers, who then make a lot of money with the aircraft, before returning them back. In your opinion, what factors, are specific to the Indian market, that are holding back Indian carriers from making money with the very same aircraft? [Editor's note: For the last two years, bulk of Jet Airway's Boeing 777-300ER fleet has been leased out to Turkish Airlines, Gulf Air, and Thai Airways. Air India too, is considering leasing its 777s.]

A: So the fundamental answer to that question is that fares from India are a lot different than fares from another country. Dubai and Singapore [Emirates and Singapore Airlines, the two largest operators of the Boeing 777], with the same aircraft make billions of dollars of profit, while we have trouble filling that aircraft because they’re taking away the market. And why is that? it’s because of their connectivity. Once you go to Dubai, you can go anywhere in the world nonstop. Jet Airways will take you to London and then what happens. You don’t go anywhere. When they take you to Hong Kong, you don’t go anywhere. When I fly SQ [Singapore Airlines] from here to Singapore, 75% of passengers connect to somewhere else. So if you understand the fare segment, if you buy Jet Airways up to Singapore and other airline after that, you’ll pay 30% higher fares, so the only way to solve this is the connectivity.

Q: So you’re saying that the Indian carriers have to drastically expand their network to make these larger aircraft work for them?

A: Through Brussels Naresh [Goyal, Jet Airways] does okay. He has a scissor hub, What does Air India do? They go to New York and stop, they go to Chicago and stop, which is better than going just to London, but it still falls way short of the global connectivity offered by SQ and EK [Emirates]. The secret is the connectivity along with the fare.

Q: These last questions are for you in your capacity as Chairman of the Aviation committee at FICCI. What, in your opinion, are the critical steps to correct the problems in the Indian aviation market?

A: We’ve got to find money for the airlines, FDI [foreign direct investment] is one way, but the second thing is that you’ve got to find ways to reduce their cost, fuel being an important one. We also ought to find how they can rationalise their routes. There’s no point having 45 flights between Bombay and Delhi when the demand is only for 35 flights. Finally, there has to be cooperation at the airports. You come to Hyderabad, there’s a ladder from SpiceJet, there’s a ladder from IndiGo, and every airline has its own. Why can’t we have an airport provide those implements, charge for it, and reduce everybody’s costs? If the costs of the consolidated ground handler is high, it needs to be talked and looked into, as to why it is high. We should not abandon the idea.

Q: What about the airport charges? Some people say, India does not need gold plated five star airports with high charges.

A: Great question. You either increase the fare or the airport charge, the effect is the same, you lose the passenger. And this is why AERA [Airport Economic Regulatory Authority] was created, it’s a tough job, I don’t envy them at all.

Thank you Dr. Keskar, a pleasure as usual.

Thank you, Devesh.

Special thanks to Vinay Bhaskara for helping with the transcription.

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Middle East Loses its Luster for India's Airlines

Will the majority of future of India-Gulf flights go through Dubai?

The first 9 months of 2012 will see a major re-shuffling by India’s airlines on the heavily trafficked India-Gulf sector, as airlines respond to higher fuel prices and a poor regulatory environment, and Air India continues to re-align its network strategy.

Air India will be enacting the most significant changes, primarily in Dammam. The third city of Saudi Arabia has a huge Indian population to work in the numerous oil fields and ancillary industries that dot the world’s most oil-rich region, Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. Despite this large traffic base, traffic from Dammam is mostly junk-yield VFR travel, especially for a carrier of Air India’s (non-existent) caliber, which is unsustainable for Air India in the face of rising costs and fuel prices. Thus Air India has announced a consolidation of Dammam services to its primary hub at Delhi. Dammam-Delhi will be served daily with an A319, replacing the current twice weekly service with Boeing 777-300ER. However, more than half of Air India’s remaining Dammam flights will all be cancelled, including Mumbai-Dammam. Air India has had direct flights between Mumbai and Dammam since the 1960s, and the end of this route is indicative of Air India’s continual shift towards a Delhi-centric airline since the decision was made to turn India’s capital into Air India’s primary hub in 2009. Along with the thrice weekly A320 service from Mumbai, current 4 weekly Hyderabad-Dammam A320 service will also be cancelled. Daily tag on service Sharjah-Dammam (linked to Varanasi and Lucknow flights) is cancelled as well. Dammam will continue to be served from Kozhikode and Trivandrum.

Meanwhile, other notable changes include the addition of a Bahrain tag to daily Delhi-Abu Dhabi services, which represents a return for Air India to Bahrain after the destination had been previously given over entirely to Air India’s low cost wing Air India Express. 2nd Daily Mumbai-Dubai flight will be re-instated with Airbus A330-200 equipment, enabled by substitution of 777-300ER for A330-200 on 7 weekly Mubai/Delhi-Jeddah frequencies (3 ex-Delhi, 4 ex-Mumbai). This 777-300ER meanwhile, is freed up by substitution of 747-400 and A320 family for 777-300ER on select Kerela-Gulf, as well as the removal of 777-300ER from Delhi-Dubai daily services in favor of Airbus A321. A full catalogue of Air India’s Middle East changes can be found at the bottom of this post, courtesy of airlineroute.net.

India’s largest private carrier Jet Airways, meanwhile, has been more muted in its response to the rising fuel prices and increased competition, but it is of course much smaller than Air India to and from the Gulf. Apparently seizing on the same trends as Air India, Jet Airways has announced a temporary reduction in many Kerala-Gulf sectors from daily to 5 weekly. The routes affected are from Trivandrum to Sharjah and Muscat, and Cochin to Muscat and Doha. On Kerala-Gulf sectors, the majority of the traffic is considered VFR or visiting family and relatives, with a smaller tourist component, and very limited business traffic. This breakdown is very consistent with variance in traffic across the various days of the week, meaning that it is not necessary for Jet to maintain services every day of the week. Jet currently has reduced service only till the end of March, but we feel that it would be prudent for them to extend these reductions further in order to boost profitability.

More troubling is Jet Airways’ subsequent addition of 4 weekly Delhi-Dammam services from mid March 2012 (17th March to be exact) using Boeing 737-800 equipment. Considering that Air India will be consolidating to the same route later in 2012, does it really make sense for Jet Airways to go head to head with Air India on a yield-limited sector? Moreover, Air India is ending Mumbai-Dammam, and Jet Airways is perhaps strongest in Mumbai. It might be more effective for Jet to target the limited business and high yield leisure traffic between Mumbai and Dammam as opposed to splitting a smaller full service market with an irrational pricing agent such as Air India. The schedules for Jet Airways Delhi-Dammam can also be found at the bottom of this story, once again courtesy of the excellent airlineroute.net blog.

Dealing with its own fiscal and operational issues, India’s third full service carrier Kingfisher has cut its Gulf operation down to almost nothing; 3 daily flights to Dubai (one each from Bangalore, Delhi, and Mumbai). Kingfisher had once operated to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf destinations as well, and the drawdown in India-Gulf mirrors Kingfisher’s overall capacity pull down, which has seen the carrier slash more than half of its capacity down to a level of around 200 flights per day. Neither GoAir nor SpiceJet operates to the Gulf (though the latter might begin to do so soon as domestic avenues for growth dry up), but the third Low Cost Carrier (LCC) of India, IndiGo is likely to add further flights to the Gulf, as it evolves towards a model of around 20% capacity deployment abroad, and adds frequencies later this year. Muscat was already mentioned as a potential destination, and further destinations are likely to complement the carrier’s existing Dubai service. Only Saudi Arabia is fully saturated under current the current bilateral agreement, so IndiGo’s possibilities are virtually endless.

Even amongst India’s full service carriers, the trend for Gulf flights is to use their LCC wings as the primary tool. Air India Express has already taken over many non Mumbai/Delhi flights to the Gulf (excluding Saudi Arabia b/c of the bilateral), and indeed Air India Express’ lower costs and more efficient 737-800 aircraft are more suitable for the VFR heavy Gulf Sectors. Jet must first integrate its Jet Konnect and JetLite brands before considering international expansion, but they too can use an LCC wing effectively to carve out a niche in this huge market. Gulf based LCCs are expanding even more exuberantly than Indian ones, with carriers such as FlyDubai adding capacity to India at exponential rates.

At the same time, the full service market between India and the Gulf has been all but ceded to airlines on the Gulf end. Emirates has, for the most part, saturated its allotted capacity, but Etihad, Turkish Airlines, and Qatar Airways to a lesser extent, all have room for expansion. Even secondary carriers such as Gulf Air are sending their most up-to-date premium products, with Gulf Air substituting its new amenity-filled A321s onto their Mumbai and Delhi routes. Whether or not government malfeasance is at the root of this imbalance, the future of Gulf service on India’s airlines increasing appears to be of the no-frills variety.

Schedule Changes

Air India Summer 2012 Middle East Changes

Abu Dhabi / Bahrain

Delhi – Bahrain – Abu Dhabi – Delhi Abu Dhabi service on outbound operates via Bahrain, where AI is resuming operation
AI941 DEL1745 – 1915BAH2015 – 2225AUH 320 D
AI940 BAH2015 – 2225AUH0005+1 – 0515+1DEL 320 D

Mumbai – Abu Dhabi Airbus A319 replaces A320, Daily service

Dammam / Sharjah

Delhi – Dammam Service changes from 2 weekly 777-300ER to Daily A319. Operational schedule moves from morning/noon to red-eye.
AI913 DEL0810 – 1010DMM 77W 37 -24MAR12
AI913 DEL0130 – 0345DMM 319 D 25MAR12-

AI912 DMM1250 – 1855DEL 77W 37 -24MAR12
AI912 DMM0445 – 1115DEL 319 D 25MAR12-

Amritsar – Sharjah – Dammam Sharjah – Dammam sector cancelled. Service to Sharjah remains at 4 weekly with schedule changes on return flight and will originate to/from Delhi

Hyderabad – Dammam 4 weekly A320 service cancelled

Lucknow – Sharjah – Dammam Sharjah – Dammam sector cancelled. Service to Sharjah remains at 3 weekly with schedule changes on return flight and will originate to/from Delhi

Mumbai – Dammam 3 weekly A320 service cancelled

Dubai

Delhi – Dubai AI995/996 Airbus A321 replaces 777-200LR/-300ER
Kozhikode – Dubai Airbus A321 replaces A320, Daily service
Mumbai – Dubai 2nd Daily service restored with A330-200
AI957 BOM1445 – 1605DXB 332 D
AI983 BOM2030 – 2155DXB 321 D

AI956 DXB1710 – 2130BOM 332 D
AI984 DXB2340 – 0405+1BOM 321 D

Jeddah (Previously reported on this site)

Delhi – Jeddah Boeing 777-300ER replaces A330-200, 3 weekly
Mumbai – Jeddah Boeing 777-300ER replaces A330-200, 4 weekly

Muscat

Delhi – Muscat Airbus A319 replaces A320/321, Daily service

Riyadh

Delhi – Riyadh Introduction of 3rd weekly service with Boeing 777-200LR
AI925 DEL1525 – 1730RUH 77W 16
AI925 DEL2010 – 2215RUH 77L 4

AI924 RUH0710 – 1355DEL 77W 16
AI924 RUH2330 – 0615+1DEL 77L 4

Mumbai – Riyadh AI927/920 (Day 24 from BOM, Day 35 from RUH) operates with 747-400, replaces 777-300ER

Thiruvananthapuram – Kochi – Riyadh Boeing 747-400 replaces 777-300ER, 2 weekly

Jet Airways Delhi-Dammam Schedules

Jet Airways from 17MAR12 is starting 4 weekly service on Delhi – Dammam route, on board Boeing 737-800 aircraft. The airline already operates Daily Mumbai – Dammam service.

Schedule from 25MAR12:

9W568 DEL2000 – 2150DMM 73H x245
9W567 DMM2250 – 0530+1DEL 73H x245

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Opinion: India's airlines are safe to fly

Over the past week, a serious fight has erupted between India’s aviation regulator the Directorate General of Civil Aviation and the airlines, with a number of serious charges being espoused by the DGCA. In a bluntly worded financial audit that Bangalore Aviation (as well as most of the internet) has acquired, the DGCA lists out several “safety” violations that India’s airlines are supposed to have committed.

The report comes to the conclusion that with regards to Air India Express and Kingfisher, “A reasonable case exists for withdrawal of their AOP [operating certificate], as their financial stress is likely to impinge on safety.” In addition to these two, the rest of India’s airlines were all found to have safety issues, with the DGCA concluding that their financial troubles could also negatively affect the safety of air travel.

Over the past week, the DGCA met with all of the private carriers to discuss their various troubles; and Kingfisher reacted with damage control, stating that it would return to flying a full schedule by 2012, and claiming that its safety violations were overblown. IndiGo reacted with a public and detailed response, while the rest of India’s carriers have yet to weigh in. Despite the sensationalist headlines reported in the Indian media, the DGCA will not be forcing any carriers to shut down.

"We have met all airlines in the past few weeks on the issue of financial stress. Kingfisher was called in today. There is no threat of closing any airline. All airlines are under stress," explained Bharat Bhushan, the DGCA head.

That being said, let’s take a look at the actual report, and assess the validity of the DGCA’s concerns. IndiGo has already detailed its response, so we’ll examine the violations detailed for Air India Express and Kingfisher; the carriers singled out by the report.

Kingfisher:

1. A third of the fleet being grounded is not, in and of itself, cause for safety concern. Simply put, Kingfisher has grounded the aircraft for lack of spares- that suggests compliance with DGCA rules, not an ignorance of safety. Qantas has at times grounded its A380 fleet for safety concerns; yet that carrier is praised for their attention to safety while the DGCA is criticizing Kingfisher for performing a similar act

2. See #1: Kingfisher is short of engines; the fleet is grounded. Would the DGCA prefer that Kingfisher fly these aircraft without engine spares?

3. While the lack of spares obviously has troubling consequences (grounded fleet), Kingfisher is ultimately choosing to ground these planes as opposed to flying them without spares.

4. Cannibalization of parts is not unheard of. For example, in the United States, low cost carrier Allegiant Air has found it more economical to purchase used McDonnell Douglas MD-80s and cannibalize those for parts to maintain their operating fleet of MD-80s.

5. MEL Extensions, which refer to changes in the minimum equipment list (number of aircraft parts) that airlines are required to have on hand at any given time, are common practice around the globe. According to IATA: “Under certain conditions, such as a shortage of parts from manufacturers, or other unforeseen, situations, air operators may be unable to comply with specified repair intervals. This may result in the grounding of aircraft. To preclude that from happening, a MEL Item Repair Interval Extension Program has been instituted that will allow operators, under controlled conditions, to obtain extensions to MEL repair interval.” While it is troubling that Kingfisher is resorting to MEL extensions due to fiduciary difficulty, ultimately, the carrier has not yet resorted to flying without parts.

6. The loss of 24 pilots is potentially serious; India’s fast growing aviation sector is placing increased strain on the country’s (relatively) small pilot base. But 24 pilots is a smaller loss than many of Kingfisher’s rivals. This outflow could have an effect on pilot rest and therefore effectiveness; but is not yet severe enough to affect overall safety

7. Kingfisher not operating a full schedule of flights is irrelevant to a discussion of the airline’s safety; and in our view, the capacity drawdown was as much a business decision as a maintenance one.

8. Most of the employees have not been paid salaries for 2011; relevant only to the extent that disgruntled employees might not be as safety conscious as committed ones; a tenuous connection at best.

Moving on to Air India Express (AIX):

Picture copyright Devesh Agarwal. All rights reserved.

1. FOQA, or flight operations quality assurance is very important with regards to aviation safety; as it measures exceedances of, or a divergence above set flight parameters (e.g. pitch exceeds safe limits at some point during a flight). FOQA exceedances are normal occurrences, to which the US Federal Aviation Administration FAA typically requires carriers to respond by “fixing” the problem, or building in more safeguards against it. From a flight safety perspective, therefore, a failure to take corrective actions for events in June is alarming. Obviously these incidents were not severe, as the DGCA has not yet grounded AIX. But this is perhaps the most valid concern raised by the DGCA against the two airlines we’ve covered. The 14 incidents cannot be judged; if the non-availability is because those flight crew have been fired or have left their job; then there is nothing that AIX could have done. On the other hand, if the carrier has been shielding these employees, then there may be a more serious problem. The increase in FOQA exceedances in 2011 is troubling, but means nothing without context; were the number of incidents per number of flights operated by AIX greater in 2011, or did incidents rise proportionally to the increase in number of flights?

2. The pilot and instructor shortage is an issue insofar as much as it restricts the carrier’s capacity growth. It could lead to a shortage of trained employees and place additional stress on current ones. But the broader trouble has been caused as much by parent Air India as anything, and as such; the blame cannot be laid solely on AIX.

3. #3 goes hand-in-hand with #2; shortage of pilots is not a safety threat unless the carrier attempts to operate more flights than the safe level with a lower level of pilots. The reduced schedules indicate that Air India Express has not committed the aforementioned error.

4. FDTL, or flight and duty time limitations, limit how long an in-flight airline employee (pilots and cabin crew) can be on the clock; mostly flying, transiting, or performing checks. FDTL is typically handled by crew schedulers, and while doing it by hand is tedious, it was performed successfully for years before the onset of computers. Air India too is still on hand-written FDTL, and while this reduces the economics of their crew scheduling and increases the DGCA’s pain in checking compliance, there is nothing inherently wrong in calculating FDTL by hand.

5. And #6 really; training is a tough business; and as long as Jet Airways’ 737-800 simulator has close to 100% commonality with AIX’s, the issue is non-existent. Moreover, the pilots only use the simulators to get a feel for flying the aircraft; the individual airline tendencies are usually learned on actual aircraft.

Based on the analysis I’ve done above, it should become apparent that the DGCA has overstated some of the safety concerns while noting other items that really shouldn’t be concerned. While the report does raise a few valid concerns (AIX’s FOQA adventures being chief among those), its broader conclusion is shoddy. Carriers are facing financial troubles, the DGCA’s thinking goes, and thus are likely to skimp on maintenance and impugn safety.

This is simply not true. Most airline managers understand that public confidence in their carrier’s safety, once lost, can bankrupt the company. A chilling example is the crash of ValuJet flight 592 in the United States in 1995. That accident so frightened the American public, who fled the airline in droves, that ValuJet was forced to change its name to AirTran in an attempt to stave off bankruptcy. Thus while airlines are often seen skimping on things like food, employees, etc., you almost never see airlines attempting to save money on maintenance beyond improvements offered by the manufacturers themselves. In fact, carriers like Kingfisher and AIX have been revealed by this report to have acted in the interests of safety. Rather than over-extend their pilots or fly aircraft without spares, they instead chose to reduce schedules and ground fleets, at great financial loss.

Ultimately the Indian airlines are still safe to fly. The DGCA and a sensationalist Indian press have blown these issues way out of proportion. Problems faced by Kingfisher and AIX are marginal at best; and those two carriers were considered the worst of the bunch. Ultimately, one wouldn’t stop flying American Airlines during their bankruptcy for fear of their safety; and so it should be for Kingfisher and the rest of India’s airlines as well.

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TimesNow TV continues scaremongering, sensationalist story telling on Air India Express, Jet Airways near miss

The normal headline of this article would have included the words reporting and coverage but then that would imply a sense of responsibility on the part of TimesNow TV and some basic adherence on their part to telling the whole truth without perversely twisting it.

Below is video shown on national TV but cleverly not on the internet, which can be archived. The video covers a "news report" on a near-miss at Trichy airport between Jet Airways and Air India Express. It is yet another example of the scaremongering and sensationalist reporting at TimesNow TV when it comes to the aviation sector, and especially Air India.

Observe the choice of sensationalist words "Mid-air Collision" "Near Crash" with the word "averted" just softly said like an afterthought. Reminds one of how Yudishtira manipulated the emotions of his guru Dronacharya for his son Aswathamma to achieve his ends; except, what are the ends TimesNow TV is trying to achieve with this less than honest approach?

Wrong visuals. Discussing an Air India Express Boeing 737-800 but showing a sketch of a Boeing 777 and then a visual of an Airbus A320, followed by cockpit videos of a Boeing 747. The channel even has the gall to compare this near miss incident to the Charkhi Dadri mid-air collision which claimed 349 lives. I do not intend to be or sound callous, but, even if both the Jet and AIX planes were filled to 100% capacity and had crashed, the total number of passengers would not be 349.




What is TimesNow trying to achieve?? A complete fear psychosis in the minds of Indian passengers?? and for the sake of a few fractions of TRPs??

In my humble opinion, TimesNow should play the role of a responsible member of the fifth estate. Do investigative journalism to ensure such incidents are properly investigated by the DGCA, in a timely manner, and correct action is followed through so that structural changes are effected which will benefit the Indian aviation and strengthen it.

This shoddy journalism only lowers the credibility of TimesNow.

What are your thoughts. Do post a comment.

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